Incremental efficiency
Modest tools widely adopted; steady but undramatic gains
What defines this world
AI capability improves slowly, but what exists gets widely adopted. Copilots, chatbots, and automation tools become standard across industries globally. The gains are real but undramatic — a few percent productivity lift, fewer administrative hours, faster routine work.
This is the ‘spreadsheet moment’ scenario: a genuinely useful technology that changes workflows without rewriting entire industries. Competitor economies integrate AI steadily. The floor rises everywhere.
Key dynamics
AI becomes standard infrastructure, like cloud computing
Productivity gains are real but modest (~2–4% at firm level)
Large firms adopt faster; SME gap widens without intervention
No dramatic labour displacement; gradual task reallocation
Competitive pressure is steady, not acute
What WA faces
WA faces steady competitive pressure. Firms and governments in comparable jurisdictions are getting more efficient. If WA doesn't match the baseline adoption, it falls behind not through dramatic failure but through gradual erosion of competitiveness. The risk is being the last to adopt the obvious.
Policy implications
Full analysis →Position in framework