Status quo / stagnation
Tools improve slowly, most institutions don't restructure
What defines this world
AI development hits diminishing returns. Models plateau around current capability levels — useful for drafting, summarising, and basic analysis, but unable to handle complex reasoning, novel research, or autonomous work. Most organisations run pilots that don't graduate to production.
The global economy continues largely on its pre-AI trajectory. Productivity growth remains modest. The hype cycle deflates, investment pulls back, and AI becomes another enterprise tool rather than a transformative force.
Key dynamics
AI investment cycle cools; hyperscaler capex normalises
Adoption stalls at pilot stage in most organisations
Productivity gains are incremental, not structural
Talent pressure eases; AI skills become a niche, not a baseline
Policy urgency is low, but preparation value is high
What WA faces
WA faces the least external pressure in this scenario. The window for preparation is wide. But the risk is complacency — if WA treats this calm as permanent and fails to build institutional capability, it will be caught flat-footed if the trajectory accelerates later.
Policy implications
Full analysis →Position in framework